Myanmar to Shun ASEAN Chairmanship in 2026
Myanmar has recently announced its decision to defer its ASEAN alternate chairmanship to 2027 instead of the originally scheduled 2026. The country cited domestic circumstances and unpreparedness as the primary reasons for this change. The ASEAN chairmanship rotation follows alphabetical order, and after Indonesia’s chairmanship, Laos is set to assume the role in 2024, followed by Malaysia in 2025. Myanmar was initially slated for 2026, but the Philippines will now take its place.
Intensifying Levels of Conflict
Even two years after the military coup, Myanmar continues to be plagued by conflict and civil unrest. The total number of armed clashes has reached a minimum of 10,000 as of July 2023. This represents a twofold increase compared to the clashes that occurred over the preceding decade from 2010 to 2020, which numbered at least 4,600. These clashes are widespread, occurring in numerous townships across the country.
In 2021, skirmishes took place in at least 139 townships. This number increased to 193 in 2022 and further expanded to 211 in 2023. It is important to note that while clashes between the State Administration Council (SAC) and Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) were predominant in 2021 and 2022, the number of clashes between these two groups has decreased in 2023. Instead, clashes between SAC forces and Peoples Defence Forces (PDFs) and Local Defence Forces (LDFs) under various designations have been steadily increasing. Additionally, there has been a rise in collaborative military operations between EAOs and PDFs, highlighting the growing capacity for force deployment of these new forces.
In August of this year, armed conflict even reached the plains areas surrounding the capital, Naypyitaw. The presence and activities of PDFs and allied forces have emerged as substantial challenges to the authority of the junta.
Myanmar’s Suffocating Economy
As the military junta struggles to maintain control, the foreign exchange value of the Myanmar Kyat is depreciating rapidly. On August 16, one Thai Baht was equivalent to over 100 Kyats, while the US dollar was trading at 3,850 Kyats in the informal market. The consequences of this swift devaluation have made imported goods more expensive, and domestic commodity prices have also risen significantly. As a result, the population is facing substantial strain as they struggle to make ends meet.
